Décidément, on parle beaucoup de lui dernièrement. Lui, c'est le Césium-137, Cs-137 de son petit nom. Avant-hier, je vous présentais les interrogations de l'équipe Internationale travaillant sur les concentrations "statistiquement anormales" de Cs-137 dans les environs de la centrale accidentée de Tchernobyl, phénomène pouvant nettement "compliquer" la tâche de réappropriation des zones évacuées en 1986.
Une bombe atomique n'est pas un accident nucléaire
Ce matin, TF1 online indiquait que, d'après des informations gouvernementales relayées par le Tokyo Shimbun, (ligne éditoriale de "centre-gauche") les autorités Japonaises estimeraient que l'accident de Fukushima aurait libéré environ 15 000 TeraBecquerel de Cs-137, contre 85 TBq lors des retombées de l'explosion de la première bombe nucléaire lancée sur Hiroshima le 6 août 1945. L'accident civil aurait donc dégagé environ 168 fois plus de Césium 137 que l'explosion atomique.
Mais voila : certains scientifiques soulignent fort doctement que comparer les émissions d'éléments à durée de vie moyenne relâchés par une bombe et ceux consécutifs à un accident nucléaire "civil" reviendrait à comparer choux et carottes, du fait notamment de l'effet "nettoyeur" des bombes (particulièrement les bombes à Hydrogène) et de l'intense dissémination des radionucléides provoquée par le souffle énorme de l'explosion à quelques centaines de mètres d'altitude.
2ème round : accident vs accident
Chers lecteurs, vous commencez à nous connaître : l'étape suivante consistera donc à comparer ce qui est comparable à savoir les retombées de Cs-137 émises lors de l'accident de Tchernobyl et celui de Fukushima.
On a souvent estimé que l'accident Ukrainien de 1986 n'avait relâché "qu'assez peu" de Césium-137 : 8000 TBq selon les Russes ou encore 8.6 PBq selon les calculs effectués par l'IRSN .
Les 15 000 Tbq relâchés à ce jour par l'ex-centrale de Fukushima (à ce jour car les émissions se poursuivent probablement) représenteraient donc environ 2 fois les rejets de Cs-137 consécutifs à l'accident de Tchernobyl.
Rien que de très normal, vu que les masses de combustible mises en jeu sont sensiblement plus importantes lors de l'accident du Japon. Pourquoi en serait-il autrement ?
Le décompte des points
Nous avons :
1) Un radioélément déjà largement disséminé en prenant en compte les chiffres officiels actuels de pourcentage de fusion des coeurs
2) Une probabilité non négligeable de fusion totale des coeurs avec d'autant plus de Cs-137 relâché au fil de sa période d'activité
3) L'étude scientifique de 2009 évoquant une contamination des sols bien plus longue que les estimations théoriques et un éventuel "retour des populations" retardé d'autant
Sans doute plus de Césium pour peut-être plus longtemps, c'est de plus en plus probable, le fameux Césium-137 devrait encore faire parler de lui un moment.
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